Its been just about 48 hours since the last round of freezing rain and sleet stopped falling across North Georgia. Thousands remain without power and it remains very cold across the region. That doesn’t mean the weather has stopped, however, and we have yet another system to track once again.
Let me get something out of the way right off: this will not be freezing rain or sleet. This storm is a snow-or-bust scenario where there is a much higher chance of us getting nothing than dealing with anything other than some light snow. Now, with that said, chances are quite low.
What we are dealing with this time is a strong upper level system diving out of Canada. This bears some resemblance to the storm that brought light snow to central Georgia a couple weeks ago, but the overall set-up isn’t exactly the same.
This system, and the trough associated with it, will likely result in another coastal low from Friday through Sunday. As this system drops down, it is expected to most likely “break off” and form an upper level low over the southeast. This will help drive the coastal low to strengthen off the coast. The big question becomes: where, if at all, does the upper low break off and where does the coastal low form. It doesn’t take a degree to see that the two charts below look radically different.
As you would expect, these charts also would produce radically different results on the ground as well. A solution like the one on the left with a stronger/further south upper system would result in light snow across mainly Northeast and East-Central Georgia. We’re talking 2-4″ at most, here, so nothing significant but definitely some potential for a nice little quick hitting system. The one on the right? Well, just some high clouds and maybe a flurry.
When all else fails we can turn to our old friend the model ensembles, which also vary quite a bit between the two models. The GFS has an average around 1″ with a few individual members in the 2-4 range, while the Euro is less optimistic.
This storm is still a few days away, and upper level lows like this are notoriously hard to predict. Right now, I would place the chances of a dusting around 40-50%, with chances of anything more than that only around 20-30%.
We’ll be watching this system closely here at Now Georgia and will keep you up to date with the latest, homegrown forecasts.
